Truck Driver Shortage 2026: TX Experts Explain Why Owner-Operator Vetting Is Key

Key Takeaways

• The trucking industry's capacity problem looks less like a headcount shortfall and more like a shortage of properly trained, reliable drivers
• ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello now frames the issue around accidents and failed drug and alcohol testing rather than a pure numbers gap
• The Department of Transportation announced the emergency removal of 110 CDL training schools from the national Training Provider Registry, including 13 physical locations in Texas, after these schools were linked to completion certificates issued to more than 5,000 drivers who later failed basic English Language Proficiency exams during roadside inspections
• More than 28,000 non-domiciled CDL holders have had their licenses revoked nationwide, with roughly 6,000 of those revocations in Texas - a reminder that a valid-looking license does not always mean a qualified driver
• Shippers who understand what separates vetted carrier capacity from the rest can avoid costly surprises on the road

The trucking industry has spent years talking about a driver shortage, but a closer look at 2026's headlines suggests the real story concerns qualifications rather than quantity. For shippers, importers, and exporters who treat carrier capacity as a commodity, that distinction matters more than it sounds.

60,000 Drivers Short - Or a Quality Gap?

The American Trucking Associations has long pointed to a shortage of roughly 80,000 drivers, concentrated mostly in long-haul trucking. That number gets repeated in boardrooms and news segments as if it explains everything wrong with freight capacity today.

A shortage of bodies behind the wheel is a different problem than a shortage of drivers who are safe, trained, and ready to haul freight responsibly. Recent federal enforcement actions around CDL training and licensing integrity have exposed how wide that gap can be. Excargo Services has watched this shift play out while vetting owner-operators for drayage and intermodal work around the Port of Houston, and their team says the pattern is hard to ignore: plenty of licensed drivers exist, but not all of them meet the bar shippers assume carriers are holding.

Why ATA Now Points to Driver Quality

The conversation at the top of the industry has started to change. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello has described the driver issue as more of a quality problem than a strict numbers problem, and the reasoning behind that shift is worth unpacking.

Accidents and Drug Testing Drive the Shift

Costello's comments center on two measurable factors: accident rates and drug and alcohol testing failures. Both point to the same conclusion. A driver can hold a valid CDL and still represent a serious risk on the road, whether through unsafe habits or failed compliance checks. For carriers and the shippers who depend on them, that risk translates directly into late freight, damaged cargo, and liability exposure that a simple headcount can never predict.

Turnover Near 90% at Large Carriers

Underneath the quality conversation sits an even older problem: keeping drivers once they're hired. Turnover at large truckload carriers has historically run close to 90%, a figure that has stayed stubbornly high for years regardless of recruiting spend. High turnover means fleets are constantly cycling in newer, less experienced drivers, which compounds the quality concerns Costello raises. A carrier chasing headcount numbers without addressing why drivers leave is treating a symptom instead of the cause.

How 110 Training Providers Lost Registry Status

Driver quality starts long before a truck ever leaves the yard. It starts in training, and that's where federal regulators found trouble in 2026. The Department of Transportation announced the emergency removal of more than 110 CDL training schools from the national Training Provider Registry, including 13 physical locations in Texas.

The schools were linked to completion certificates issued to more than 5,000 drivers who later failed basic English Language Proficiency exams during roadside safety inspections. A separate investigation effort sent 175 investigators across 40 states to conduct nearly 400 reviews of training providers, turning up instructors without proper licenses, improperly equipped training vehicles, and incomplete student assessments. These are not minor paperwork issues. They are the kinds of gaps that put undertrained drivers behind the wheel of an 80,000-pound vehicle.

FMCSA's Self-Certification Loophole

Here's the part that surprises most shippers: the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration doesn't certify the quality of the schools on its own registry. Training providers self-certify that their curriculum meets minimum federal standards, and FMCSA does not independently verify or approve individual instructors. That system relies heavily on the honesty and competence of the schools themselves, which is precisely how more than 110 of them ended up falling short of basic standards without anyone catching it until drivers were already failing roadside exams.

28,000 Non-Domiciled CDLs Revoked

The licensing gaps extend beyond training schools. More than 28,000 non-domiciled CDL holders have had their licenses revoked nationwide, and Texas alone has revoked roughly 6,000 non-domiciled CDLs. States are now required to withhold issuing, transferring, renewing, or upgrading a non-domiciled CDL unless the driver provides qualifying evidence of lawful immigration status, limited to specific visa categories.

These revocations followed a corrective action plan after federal auditors sampled thousands of valid non-domiciled CDLs and Commercial Learner's Permits issued by a state licensing agency, finding a failure rate high enough to trigger a full review. For shippers, the takeaway is straightforward: a license being active today doesn't guarantee it will hold up under closer federal scrutiny tomorrow, and carriers who haven't built their own vetting process are exposed to that uncertainty.

Why Retention, Not Recruiting, Is the Real Fix

University of Pennsylvania researcher Steve Viscelli has argued that the industry's real problem isn't a lack of people willing to drive trucks, but an inability to keep the ones already trained and qualified. The trucking industry recruits aggressively, pouring resources into attracting new drivers, while doing far less to address why so many leave within the first year.

That pattern creates a treadmill effect. Fleets spend heavily to bring drivers in, lose a large share of them to turnover, and then spend again to replace them, all without ever closing the gap between how many qualified drivers the industry needs and how many it successfully retains. Long hours, unpredictable schedules, truck parking shortages, and extended detention time at shipper facilities all play a role in pushing drivers toward the exit. Addressing those conditions does more for driver quality than any recruiting campaign ever could.

What Shippers Should Demand From Carriers

Shippers who assume all carrier capacity is interchangeable are taking on risk they may not even realize exists. Knowing what to ask for before freight moves can prevent a lot of headaches down the road.

Verifiable Driving Experience and Clean Records

A clean-looking application means little without verification behind it. Shippers should expect carriers to confirm real-world experience, not just licensing status, before putting a driver on a load. A reasonable standard includes:

• A minimum of two years of verifiable commercial motor vehicle driving experience in a tractor-trailer
• No more than three moving violations in the past 36 months, and no more than two in the previous 12 months
• No DOT-reportable accidents in the last 12 months

Carriers that hold owner-operators to standards like these filter out exactly the kind of risk that accident and turnover data keep pointing back to.

Background Checks That Screen Out Risk

Experience behind the wheel is only part of the picture. Criminal background checks matter just as much, especially when freight involves high-value cargo moving through port and rail terminals. Disqualifying convictions typically include DWIs or DUIs within the past ten years, sexual-related crimes, and felony convictions less than ten years old. A carrier willing to walk away from an applicant over these red flags is treating driver quality as a priority rather than simply filling a seat.

Intermodal-Specific Skills Matter

Drayage and intermodal freight come with their own learning curve. Container handling, chassis inspections, and terminal procedures all require familiarity that a general long-haul background doesn't automatically provide. Most intermodal drivers operate as small carriers or owner-operators rather than employees of massive fleets, which makes individual vetting even more important. Experience with electronic logging devices, basic truck maintenance, and the kind of time management port schedules demand separates drivers who can handle intermodal work from those still learning on the job.

Not All Capacity Is Created Equal

Treating every available truck as interchangeable capacity ignores everything the past year has revealed about training gaps, licensing failures, and turnover-driven risk. A truck showing up on time means little if the driver behind the wheel was trained at a school that just lost its federal registry status, or holds a license caught up in a state's corrective action plan.

Shippers who ask pointed questions about experience verification, background checks, and intermodal-specific skill sets protect more than a delivery schedule. They protect the freight itself, the timeline it depends on, and the business relationships built around getting cargo where it needs to go without surprises. For anyone sourcing capacity through the Port of Houston, understanding the difference between a licensed driver and a vetted one starts with asking the right questions about owner-operator qualifications before freight ever leaves the dock.

Excargo Services
City: Pasadena
Address: 4300 Malone Dr Ste 100,
Website: https://www.excargo.com/